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Talking Trends: economy stabilises in late 2020

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Economic activity stabilised at the end of 2020 despite the worsening epidemic situation. The resurgence of coronavirus cases impacted economic trends less significantly at the end of 2020. This became possible as a result of more targeted restrictions as compared to spring 2020 and economic agents’ gradual adjustment to the new conditions. These findings are given in the new issue of the Talking Trends bulletin prepared by the Bank of Russia’s Research and Forecasting Department.

At the beginning of 2021, economic activity remained at the levels reached by late 2020, which is proven by a range of high-frequency indicators. The Russian economy is expected to resume recovery in 2021 H1 as the epidemic situation improves. The pace and efficiency of mass vaccination will be a key factor determining how fast business processes will restore and return to normal.

Proinflationary factors have been prevailing over disinflationary ones since the end of last year. Price growth rates stay elevated across a wide range of consumer basket components, which evidences that there are not only short-term, but also longer-lasting proinflationary factors. According to the authors of the bulletin, inflation will start to slow down in March, as the effect of a range of temporary factors, including those associated with last year’s ruble weakening, tapers off and the high price growth rates recorded in late 2020 Q1 — early 2020 Q2 are excluded from the calculation.

The views and recommendations expressed in the bulletin do not necessarily reflect the official position of the Bank of Russia.

See PDF here: https://www.cbr.ru/Collection/Collection/File/31940/bulletin_21-01_e.pdf

This news item was originally published by the Central Bank of the Russian Federation (CBR RU). For more information, see the Source Link.

Regulator Information

Abbreviation: CBR
Jurisdiction: Russian Federation

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